Abortion numbers nine-months after Dobbs.

In the US, in the nine months following Dobbs, there have been 81,000 less abortions in those States that have enacted life-affirming laws limiting access to abortion; that’s about 9,000 less per month.

Of course, many women have been able to travel to access abortion in other States where these laws are not in force, an estimated 56,000 have done so; about 6,200 per month.

Thus, the estimated impact of Dobbs is currently a countrywide decline in abortion numbers of about 2,800 per month.

The above numbers are from the most recent report by #WeCount, that now covers nine months. This is a national abortion reporting effort that aims to capture the shifts in abortion access by state following the June 24, 2022 Dobbs v Jackson’s Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision. I wrote earlier about the six-month report.

A key change in these estimates is that of the total decline in abortions; the six-month report estimated an overall reduction of 32,000 (5,300 pm); this nine-month report updates this to an overall reduction of 25,600 (2,800 pm). I think this significant change, almost half, is to be expected as more months’ data are added into the calculations.

The key limitation of this report and its data, remains – namely these estimates do not take account of the numbers of women who are accessing online (illegal) abortion pills and self-administering these at home. The #WeCount team acknowledge this and mention Aid Access as an example of the organisations providing these pills-by-post in breach of the local regulations.

Data released in May 2023, show a 2.5x increase in (illegal) online requests for abortion pills from Aid Access since Dobbs, estimated at 6,000 per month. I think there’s very little doubt that this illegal source of abortion pills for use by women at home is offsetting any reductions in abortion numbers in the formal sector.

To truly impact, reduce, the numbers of abortions, changes in the laws to limit abortion need to be enacted by many more States, especially those bordering ones that have already have such life-affirming laws. That, and of course some action to restrict the mailing of illegal abortion pills from organisations such as Aid Access (and there are many others).