1-in-3 pregnancies (probably) now end in abortion

The annual number of abortions in England and Wales is increasing at an unprecedented rate; projections for 2023 indicate that 1-in-3 of all viable pregnancies are ended by abortion, a significant increase from 1-in-4 in 2019. BPAS and MSI Reproductive Choices point to the cost-of-living crisis as the key driver of this worrying trend.

The Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) has released summary abortions data for the first six months of 2022 showing a 17% increase over the same period in 2021 and, as we discussed in an earlier post, MSI Reproductive Choices recently submitted written evidence projecting a 32% increase for the same period in 2023.

Given that a viable pregnancy will end in either a live birth or an induced abortion, a useful indicator of the year-on-year trend is to measure the ratio of abortions to live births. The number of live births each month is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

In the first six months of 2019, the ratio was 34 abortions per 100 live births; another way of expressing this is to say that 1-in-4 of all viable pregnancies ended in abortion.[i]

For the period January to June 2022, the ratio had risen to 42.

Using the increase that MSI has reported for the same period of 2023, we project that the ratio will rise to 55, meaning that more than 1-in-3 of all viable pregnancies are now ending in abortion.[ii]

Commenting on the cost-of-living crisis, the Chief of Staff at BPAS recently tweeted:

…where women can’t afford children we want to ensure that they have the legal right and ability to make the difficult decision to end a pregnancy.

That should not be our response when women tell us that they are worried about not being able to afford children, we have to do better than simply offering abortion, and yet, if these projections are accurate it very much looks like we, as a nation, are doing just that; we are failing to wholly support our young women and their families.

---

[i] 314,555 live births and 105,540 abortions. 105,540/314,555 x100 = 33.55 (round up to 34).
Ratio is 34 abortions per 100 live births, and (100+34)/34 = 3.9 (1-in-4)

[ii] 296,744 live births and 162,649 abortions, a ratio of 55. (100+55)/55 = 2.81 (>1-in-3).
If the increase in 2023 is just 21%, not the 32% stated by MSI, the ratio will be 50, which is still equivalent to 1-in-3.