Is abortion being used as birth control and could it be a critical enabler of our below-replacement birth rates; in just two generations our population will reduce by 40%: 100 adults, 77 children, 59 grandchildren.
In 2022, the most recent year in which we have official data for the whole of the UK, there were 72 viable pregnancies for every 1,000 women of reproductive age (15-44) (WRA). These pregnancies resulted in 51 live births and 21 induced abortions.[1]
One can argue that these abortions are being used as a method of birth control, having prevented just over 29% of all viable pregnancies. The effect has been to reduce the UK’s birth rate to well below the replacement rate. In order to maintain our natural population numbers, we need 70 pregnancies per 1,000 WRA per year. Had there been no abortions, we would have reached this in 2022, the 72 noted above. Instead we had just 51 live births per 1,000 WRA, meaning that should this continue, on average, a woman will have 1.53 children in her lifetime – we need this to be at 2.1 to maintain our population numbers.
The generational impact of this is significant: 100 adults will have 77 children and these children will have 59 children of their own. So, in just two generations we might see a 40% reduction in our natural population.
- 100 adults
- 77 children
- 59 grandchildren
Fewer children in each successive generation, that is not how it should be.
To date, our below-replacement birth rate has not yet impacted on the overall size of our population. This has been because many are now living longer and, of course, the significant impact of net migration.[2] However, below-replacement birth rates is a global issue, it is happening everywhere, and this means that we might not always be able to rely on migration to plug the growing gaps in our working, tax-paying, population. Nor has the trend bottomed out yet; the Office for National Statistics estimates that future UK TFR could be lower, around 1.45, and we are still seeing a continued increasing trend in the numbers and rates of abortion.[3]
What’s to be done?
This is a difficult issue for politicians and commentators to tackle; taxation, migration, family, and abortion are polarising matters with very strong views on all sides. There is no quick or easy fix; the timeframe required to resolve this is well beyond the 24-hours news cycle that captures most, and indeed perhaps even beyond our 5-years election period. There are many varied and genuine reasons why young people are delaying pregnancy and having smaller families – we cannot and should not ignore the reasons cited.
It would have been so much better had we not got into this dire position but we are here now and we must get serious about finding a way through.
[1] The concept of a ‘viable’ pregnancy and these related data are discussed more fully in this earlier post:
Duffy, K. (2025, March 12). Live births and abortions – 55 years of data. Percuity. https://percuity.blog/2025/03/12/live-births-and-abortions-55-years-of-data/
[2] Duffy, K. (2023, November 30). Double impact of immigration on population. Percuity. https://percuity.blog/2023/11/28/double-impact-of-immigration-on-population-2/
[3] Duffy, K. (2025, February 17). 300,000 abortions in the UK in 2024. Percuity. https://percuity.blog/2025/02/17/300000-abortions-in-the-uk-in-2024/
Discover more from Percuity
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
